India, read in numbers.

FY26 closed at 7.7%, the fastest major economy; the RBI raised its FY27 view to 6.7% on 5 August. The Q1 FY27 print lands 31 August.

Manufacturing +7.8%, electricity +10.6%, electrical equipment +34%: capex-linked industry accelerated straight into the oil shock.

Still expanding, but domestic orders cooled hard; export orders accelerated. The survey says slowdown while the hard data says boom — trust neither alone.

The sharpest one-month services deceleration in the cycle: the demand side is where the oil shock is landing first.

A second month above target, seventh straight rise. The disinflation dividend that funded 2025's cuts is spent.

Food, restaurants and personal care drove the July print; an uneven El Niño monsoon is the upside risk the MPC named.

Ex food & fuel holds near target: the July jump is mostly food and oil pass-through, which is why the MPC waited rather than tightened.

Held 6-0 on 5 August: the RBI wants 'greater clarity' on inflation with oil volatile. A cut needs CPI back under 4%.

The inflation rise ate half the real-rate cushion in two months: the RBI's room for error is shrinking.

The June duration rally reversed on oil, tighter liquidity and Bloomberg postponing India's EM-index inclusion: sovereign funding repriced up.

Spreads held wide through the yield back-up; July bond issuance cooled to ₹92,000 cr from June's ~₹1.2 lakh cr pace.

Credit has re-accelerated hard and broad (12–15% across all four deployment sectors): the deployment backdrop PE was waiting for, and a series the RBI will watch for froth.

Grinding back through the second oil shock: domestic flows plus returning FPIs beat $90 crude, so far.

Valuation support is real but the earnings test is live: Q2 FY27 results decide whether cheap-vs-history was cheap-vs-future.

The yield gap widened back out as G-secs sold off: rates remain the competition under the 'cheap P/E'.

Vol is asleep with Brent near $90 and Hormuz contested — cheap optionality if the war reprices, complacency if it does.

Listed India is back above $5tn on the July recovery and the IPO wave: the 2026 drawdown is now a flows story, not a level story.

The tug-of-war inverted: foreigners bought their first month since February (plus ₹29.2k cr of debt) while domestic buying eased — DIIs hold a record 21% of the Nifty-500 vs FPIs' 17%.

The sharpest weekly build in six months: the RBI is rebuilding the buffer it spent in the spring, while it can.

Oil at $90–105 undoes the June recovery: the rupee is back within 1.5% of its record low, and the RBI is smoothing, not defending.

FY26's near-balance is history: June's record goods deficit and $90 oil put the CAD back on a widening path.

Imports +31% YoY against exports +15.5%: the oil re-spike hits exactly where India is widest. July data lands 14 August.

Outflows exceeded inflows in May for the first time in three months: repatriation and outward Indian investment are eating the gross number (RBI July bulletin).

Rising but moderate vs GDP; reserves cover ~89%: a comfortable buffer.

The real exchange rate corrected: the rupee is more export-competitive than the nominal suggests.

Revised estimate met despite a direct-tax shortfall: credible glide-path.

Edging down toward the medium-term anchor: a structural positive for the rating.

Import-led (+28.8%) as much as domestic (+10.1%): buoyant, but partly the oil bill talking.

Headline rate low, but Current-Weekly-Status (short-run distress) sits notably higher.

Participation climbing, led by rural women: a structural-demand and formalisation positive.

H1 was soft on any universe; July's $11.6bn total deal tape (three $1bn+ strategic deals) says the second half opened harder.

July added only ~$800M after June's CRED-inflated ~$2bn: the venture tape is choppy while AI takes a rising share.

The LP layer re-committed at scale, but into few hands: fund-count concentration is the CGI's live story.

The exit tape cooled hard in H1 — which is exactly why July's ₹52,300 cr primary-market month and the Manipal listing matter for DPI.

AI is absorbing share of a flat pie; entry price, not theme, is now the differentiator.