India, read in numbers.
The observable prints (growth, prices, rates, the external account, valuation, fiscal, labour and private markets) that the Gravitywell index family turns into forward composites. Every figure sourced, dated and trended.
A strong real economy that just weathered an oil-price war. Growth leads: 7.7% in FY26 (Q4 at 7.8%), the fastest major economy, with CPI still under the RBI's 4% target (3.93% in May) and the repo on hold at 5.25% (neutral, 6-Jun MPC). The 2026 stress was external and geopolitical: a US/Israel–Iran war from 28 Feb shut the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent to a ~$118 April peak (highest since 2008), the rupee to an all-time low near ₹96.8 in May, and equities down ~10% on a record foreign-portfolio exodus (−₹2.74 lakh cr in H1), absorbed by record domestic buying (DIIs +₹4.3 lakh cr). The Hormuz reopening and US–Iran agreement on 19 June unwound it fast: oil back toward ~$72, the rupee recovered to ₹94.65, the 10-yr G-sec at a 14-week low (6.76%) on record FPI debt buying, and VIX back to 13.5. Net: robust fundamentals, a benign-but-watch inflation read, and an external account that took a genuine shock and is now healing.
Growth & activity
The real economy: output, industry and the forward-looking PMI pulse.
Q4 at 7.8%: manufacturing, construction and steady consumption led. Fastest major economy.
Manufacturing +6.2%, capital goods strong: the new chain-linked IIP series.
Output and new orders accelerating: the strongest factory read in three months.
Prices & inflation
Against the RBI's 4% target (2–6% band). CPI rebased to 2024=100 in Jan 2026.
Fifth straight monthly rise, but still under the 4% target. Room for the RBI, watchfully.
Ex food & fuel: the sticky core the RBI actually steers by; hovering near target.
The upside pressure; rural inflation (4.25%) now runs ahead of urban (3.53%).
Rates & cost of capital
The policy stance, the real rate, and the actual price of money for deals (PE lens).
On hold, neutral stance: not signalling ease or hike; watching inflation vs growth.
A positive real rate gives the RBI optionality and supports the rupee.
Spiked toward 7.0% in the oil shock, then fell to a 14-week low on record FPI G-sec buying (~₹41,800 cr in June): cheaper sovereign funding.
Narrow AAA-G-sec spread = healthy credit appetite; the base cost of corporate debt.
Robust but cooling; ICRA sees sub-12% in FY27: the deployment backdrop for PE.
Markets & valuation
Levels, valuation and the flow tug-of-war, with the equity-vs-bond yield gap (HF lens).
Firming off the spring lows as oil fell and the war ended: still ~9.5% below the 5-Jan record.
Cheaper than its own history (P/B 3.07, div yield 1.21%): valuation support after the fall.
The yield gap favours bonds, the catch beneath the 'cheap P/E': rates are competition.
Fear premium drained after the 19-Jun truce, from an 18+ war spike back to 13.5.
Among the largest equity markets globally, but a heavy 2026 drawdown, now stabilising.
Foreigners sold ₹49,340 cr of equity (but bought ₹55,500 cr of debt); domestics bought a record: the structural floor held.
External & vulnerability
The balance-of-payments picture: reserves, the rupee, the debt stack (policymaker lens).
Ample cover; drawn from a $728bn Feb ATH to smooth the rupee through the oil shock, stabilising as it recovered.
Rebounded from a ~96.8 May record low as oil fell and the war ended: external pressure easing, not defending a level.
Comfortable: services exports and remittances cushion the goods deficit.
Import surge: the external-vulnerability watch-item if oil re-spikes.
Rising but moderate vs GDP; reserves cover ~89%: a comfortable buffer.
The real exchange rate corrected: the rupee is more export-competitive than the nominal suggests.
Repatriation and Indian outward investment keep NET inflows low despite healthy gross FDI.
Fiscal
The government's books: deficit discipline, the debt path and tax buoyancy.
Revised estimate met despite a direct-tax shortfall: credible glide-path.
Edging down toward the medium-term anchor: a structural positive for the rating.
Buoyant indirect taxes offset a direct-tax miss (~₹3 lakh cr shortfall flagged).
Labour & employment
The social-stability and demand backdrop: the number policymakers live on.
Headline rate low, but Current-Weekly-Status (short-run distress) sits notably higher.
Participation climbing, led by rural women: a structural-demand and formalisation positive.
Private markets · PE / VC
The deployment, fundraising and exit cycle, for the PE & VC desks this is the core read.
Financial services overtook infra as the top sector; AI/deeptech/space/climate broadening the base.
Startup funding slipped 9% as the war/oil shock stalled deals; down-rounds ~3× 2021, late-stage checks −68%.
Larger rounds rebounded in SaaS and fintech: balanced volume-and-size growth.
Dry powder building fast (VC funds ~$5.4bn): capital is committed, waiting on entry points.
Strategic sales (48% of exits) + IPO liquidity returned: the exit window reopened.
Global frame · what India trades inside
India is not an island: oil, US rates and the dollar set the external weather for the rupee, flows and inflation.
India's #1 swing variable: the Hormuz reopening pulled oil down hard, easing CAD, inflation and rupee pressure.
Higher US yields shrink India's rate advantage and pressure flows.
The carry cushion for foreign debt inflows is thin: a rupee-vulnerability signal.
A strong dollar is the headwind under the weak rupee and EM outflows.
Easing on the strong dollar, but India's gold imports still weigh on the trade gap.
Capital running hot while fragility builds: bubble-watch, late in the cycle.
The Clock standardises all 11 capital indices into one phase read: the forward composite the raw prints above feed into. See the methodology →
What to watch · the forward calendar
These raw indicators feed 11 rules-based capital indices + the Capital Cycle Clock: the forward read on the cycle.
Open →Read the cycle by sector →Sector analysisDecision-grade dossiers: data centers, space, quantum, semiconductors, scored against this macro backdrop.
Open →Snapshot 3 July 2026. Observable official and market prints, reconciled to the latest releases. Research / informational only: not investment advice. Sources: GDP 7.7% FY26 / Q4 7.8% (MoSPI, 5 Jun 2026)P · CPI 3.93%, food 4.78% May'26 (MoSPI / PIB)P · IIP +4.9% Apr'26, new 2022-23 base (PIB)P · Fiscal deficit 4.4%, debt/GDP 55.6%, GST ₹22tn (PIB / Budget)P · Unemployment 3.2% PLFS 2024-25 (MoSPI / PIB)P · Repo 5.25% neutral (RBI MPC, Jun 2026)P · Mfg PMI 55.0 May'26 (HSBC / S&P Global)S · 10Y G-sec / AAA spread / credit growth (Trading Economics / ICRA)S · Nifty P/E 20.7 / P/B 3.07 / earnings yield (Craytheon / Trendlyne)S · Brent ~$118 Apr peak → ~$72 post-truce; US 10Y / DXY / gold (Trading Economics / EIA)S · Forex $682bn (Business Standard, 15 Jun'26); USD/INR ₹94.65 (30 Jun'26, HDFC Sky)S · FPI −₹2.74L cr H1 · Jun −₹49,340 cr equity / +₹55,518 cr debt; DII +₹85,800 cr Jun (NSDL / NSE / Business Standard)S · US–Iran war 28 Feb–19 Jun 2026, Strait of Hormuz closure/reopening; rupee record low ~96.8 May 2026 (Wikipedia / IndiaMacroIndicators)S · India VIX 13.47 / Nifty 50 23,866 / G-sec 6.76% (30 Jun'26, HDFC Sky / Trading Economics)S · Startup funding $5.2bn H1 2026 −9% (Inc42); tech +12% $7.2bn (Business Standard)S · External debt $765bn, ~19% GDP; REER (RBI / ICRA)S · PE/VC $60.7bn 2025, exits $32.9bn, 2026 run-rate (Bain / EY-IVCA)S · Market cap $4.77tn / Nifty-Sensex YTD; India VIX (5paisa / Upstox)S · Core CPI ~4.2% & indicative sparkline points: Gravitywell estimateE
Definitions. Definitions: CPI/core on 2024=100 base; real policy rate = repo − headline CPI; earnings yield = inverse Nifty P/E (the equity-vs-bond 'yield gap' is the Fed-model spread); REER = 40-country, trade-weighted real exchange rate (negative = more competitive); FII/DII = net cash-market flows; PE/VC figures are calendar-year (Bain/EY-IVCA). Sparklines trace the recent trend to the latest official print; intermediate points are indicative. Market levels move intraday and are shown as indicative ranges.
Sourcing. Every figure is sourced and dated. We tier provenance: Primary (official, regulatory, exchange or company filings), Secondary (tier-1 industry research and reputable media), and GW estimate (our own reconstruction or opinion, labelled, never presented as external fact). We prefer primary where it exists, reconcile divergent prints to cited ranges, and hold every number point-in-time: dated, and never silently restated; revisions publish as dated changes.
Fact vs opinion. Facts vs opinion: market sizes, official prints, prices, named deals and agency ratings are sourced facts (Primary/Secondary). Scores, grades, purity weights, scenario paths and indicative sparkline points are Gravitywell's analytical opinion (GW estimate): labelled, not presented as external data.
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