Capital Cycle Clock.
Every index, standardised to a common scale and combined into one momentum × fragility position: where India sits in the capital cycle.
Momentum × Fragility · the cycle hand
Capital running hot while fragility builds: bubble-watch, late in the cycle. Both axes are centred at 100 = the 24-month average; the trail is the path since Jul 2024, red is now.
Capital Activity Factor · the latent signal
The single common factor extracted from all eleven indices (Stock-Watson approximate dynamic factor model), Kalman-smoothed for the real-time read (Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti). It explains 87% of cross-index variance (the de-trended participation ratio puts the effective count at ~4 factors; Bai-Ng's criterion is degenerate at this sample length). Markov-switching (Hamilton) puts the high-activity (expansion) regime at 100%.
Quantile reg (ABG 2019); tail under-identified: no in-sample crisis
How the hand is built
Momentum = Formation 35% · Realisation 20% · Confidence 20% · Domestic 25%. Fragility = Stress 30% · Cost 20% · Concentration 15% · External 20% · Conditions 15%, less an Efficiency offset. The family is mixed-normalisation (some indices read “% above base”, others in std-devs), so each is re-standardised to a common z-scale before combining: the only honest way to weight them together.
Read it as a clock hand, not a dot: the direction it is turning matters more than the point. v3.2 (2026-07). See the full family and the methodology statement for limitations: the monthly path is reconstructed, and no “leading indicator” claim ships until lead-lag is validated on real point-in-time data.
The whole cycle, one hand.
The Capital Cycle Clock updates monthly with every index behind it.