Conviction, graded.
Forward-looking research opinions across the sovereign, states, sectors, instruments and tactical capital stances, on one transparent ladder, factor-scored, governed, and screenable. Research opinions, not regulated credit ratings.
Sovereign spotlight · India
The agencies' public ratings, our forward view, and the factor build-up behind the grade.
Rating actions · the feed
Every initiation, upgrade, downgrade and outlook change: dated and published. This is the inaugural cycle, so the feed is initiations.
The ratings screener
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| Entity | Class | Grade | Outlook | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gujarat · State★ Watch + | Sub-sovereign | G2Strong | Positive | 76 |
| India · Sovereign★ Watch + | Sovereign | G2Strong | Positive | 74 |
| Maharashtra · State | Sub-sovereign | G2Strong | Stable | 74 |
| Karnataka · State | Sub-sovereign | G3Sound | Stable | 66 |
| Tamil Nadu · State | Sub-sovereign | G3Sound | Stable | 64 |
| Defence & Aerospace · Sector | Sector | G3Sound | Positive | 61 |
| Healthcare Services & Medtech · Sector | Sector | G3Sound | Positive | 61 |
| Data-Centre Exposure Basket | Instrument | G3Sound | Stable | 60 |
| Data Centers · Sector | Sector | G3Sound | Positive | 59 |
| Fintech & Financial Infrastructure · Sector | Sector | G3Sound | Stable | 59 |
| Space Tech · Sector | Sector | G3Sound | Positive | 57 |
| AI: The India Stack · Sector | Sector | G3Sound | Positive | 55 |
| EV & Battery Ecosystem · Sector | Sector | G4Adequate | Developing | 51 |
| Uttar Pradesh · State★ Watch + | Sub-sovereign | G4Adequate | Positive | 50 |
| Semiconductors · Sector | Sector | G4Adequate | Stable | 50 |
| Semiconductor Exposure Basket | Instrument | G4Adequate | Stable | 50 |
| Space-Tech Exposure Basket | Instrument | G4Adequate | Stable | 48 |
| Quick Commerce · Sector★ Watch − | Sector | G4Adequate | Developing | 47 |
| Quantum Computing · Sector | Sector | G4Adequate | Developing | 46 |
| Quantum Exposure Basket★ Watch − | Instrument | G5Speculative | Negative | 38 |
| G-secs / duration | Capital stance | Constructive | Moderate conviction | stance |
| Corporate / private credit | Capital stance | Constructive | Moderate conviction | stance |
| Indian equities | Capital stance | Neutral | Moderate conviction | stance |
| Gold | Capital stance | Constructive | Moderate conviction | stance |
| Indian rupee | Capital stance | Underweight | Moderate conviction | stance |
Governance & criteria
Each rating is set by a Gravitywell research review, chaired by the head of research, with at least two analysts and a methodology owner: not by a single author.
Ratings are reviewed every cycle (monthly for stances, quarterly for sectors/instruments, semi-annually for sovereign/sub-sovereign) and on any material event.
Gravitywell does not solicit or accept payment from rated entities for a rating. Ratings are issuer-unpaid research opinions; any holdings or advisory relationships are disclosed.
Analysts are walled from any commercial relationship; the methodology owner can veto a grade that departs from criteria without a documented rationale.
A grade is a relative, forward-looking opinion on risk-adjusted attractiveness (sectors/instruments/stances) or creditworthiness (sovereign/sub-sovereign): NOT a probability of default and NOT a price target.
A rated entity or a subscriber may submit new information; the committee re-reviews and publishes any change as a dated rating action.
The registry is now two review cycles old (initiated June 2026; stances reviewed July and August). The record so far: every grade affirmed or revised as a dated action — including the August stance changes (G-secs cut to Constructive when the duration call's premise broke; gold raised to Constructive as the war bid returned) and the first sector watch placement (quick commerce, Negative). No grade has yet been outright upgraded or downgraded, so the transition matrix is still trivial; we will publish it, with hit-rates against outcomes, once there is enough history for it to mean something. Track record is earned, not asserted.
Method: Sector grades map our 0-100 favourability onto the G1-G6 ladder, with a forward outlook from the cycle trend. Sovereign and sub-sovereign grades weight growth, fiscal, external and institutional factors. Instrument grades score exposure quality and risk (not past return). Capital stances are tactical views from the macro indicators and the Cycle Clock. Grades are point-in-time and reviewed each cycle: we do not silently restate.
Sources: RBI MPC 3-5 Aug 2026: repo 5.25%, neutral, FY27 GDP 6.7% (Forbes India / RBI)P · Fitch affirms India BBB- citing debt, tariff risks (Aug 2025; no action since)P · Moody's affirms India Baa3 (Moody's Ratings)P · State finances (RBI Study of State Budgets)P · India sovereign: S&P BBB / Moody's Baa3 / Fitch BBB- (TheGlobalEconomy / Trading Economics)S · S&P upgrade to BBB, 2025 (CNBC-TV18)S · EM peer sovereign ratings (Wikipedia / Trading Economics)S · All sector grades, stances, purity weights & scores: Gravitywell opinionE
Sourcing. Every figure is sourced and dated. We tier provenance: Primary (official, regulatory, exchange or company filings), Secondary (tier-1 industry research and reputable media), and GW estimate (our own reconstruction or opinion, labelled, never presented as external fact). We prefer primary where it exists, reconcile divergent prints to cited ranges, and hold every number point-in-time: dated, and never silently restated; revisions publish as dated changes.
Fact vs opinion. Facts vs opinion: market sizes, official prints, prices, named deals and agency ratings are sourced facts (Primary/Secondary). Scores, grades, purity weights, scenario paths and indicative sparkline points are Gravitywell's analytical opinion (GW estimate): labelled, not presented as external data.
IMPORTANT: Gravitywell Research Ratings are independent, forward-looking RESEARCH OPINIONS / analytical assessments. They are NOT credit ratings issued by a SEBI-registered Credit Rating Agency, NOT a SEBI Research-Analyst recommendation, and NOT investment advice. Sovereign ratings shown for S&P, Moody's and Fitch are those agencies' own public ratings, cited for reference only. Sub-sovereign (state) and instrument grades are research opinions, not solicited ratings. Our opinions may change without notice and do not guarantee any outcome. Do your own research / consult a SEBI-registered adviser.
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